Assessing Resilience of Europe's Natural Gas Network

Pipelines throughout Europe transport large volumes of natural gas, covering more than 20% of Europe’s primary energy demand. Despite the importance of the resource, the well-​developed infrastructure and the large investments, history shows that unforeseen events can damage the system and lead to supply shortages.

The European natural gas infrastructure network consists of a number of interconnected components. Such a large-​scale and complex infrastructure network is exposed to a variety of potential hazards, which can cause disruptions and result in loss of supply on a regional level. 

Future Resilient Systems (FRS) researcher Dr. Peter Lustenberger, Felix Schumacher from Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), and FRS principal investigators Dr. Matteo Spada, Dr. Peter Burgherr and Prof. Bozidar Stojadinovic have developed methods that can serve as a possible starting point for a resilience assessment of the European natural gas network with respect to natural (e.g., seismic) and technical hazards. 

In the paper Assessing the Performance of the European Natural Gas Network for Selected Supply Disruption Scenarios Using Open-​Source Information, the researchers assembled a complex network model of the European natural gas network from open-​source data and conducted an analysis of potential pipeline disruptions considering seismic and technical hazards.

Results showed that locations with a dead-​end, sole supply, and without storage facility nearby, are remarkably exposed to natural gas supply losses. Moreover, it is illustrated that storage facilities can reduce the overall disruption impact, for example by compensating for potential flow capacity losses. It is found that in case of two pipelines, the Transitgas pipeline and Trans-​Mediterranean pipeline supplying Italy, the installed storage facilities cannot fully compensate a potential disruption. The researchers conducted a supply grade mapping for those two pipelines and identified regions in Italy with potential supply shortages, making use of a Monte Carlo simulation approach. The results presented general insights and suggest further analysis, for example, using seasonal variability of the natural gas consumption. 

Disruption impact mapping is a key element towards cost–benefit analysis to support risk-​based decision making. It can identify potential measures such as fortification of pipelines or installation of storage facilities. This is in line with the calls of the United Nations’ Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction to prevent and reduce the exposure and vulnerability to disasters, increase preparedness for response and recovery and thus strengthen our society.